Publications
Journal Articles
Voters’ Expectations in Constituency Elections Without Local Polls (with Lukas Stoetzer, Mark Kayser & Arndt Leininger). Public Opinion Quarterly. 2024.
Computing Quantities of Interest and Their Uncertainty Using Bayesian Simulation (with Richard Traunmüller & Jeff Gill). Political Science Research and Methods. 2023.
Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Elections (with Yannick Dufresne, Bruno Jérôme, Michael Lewis-Beck & Justin Savoie). PS: Political Science & Politics. 2022.
Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election (with Michael Lewis-Beck). PS: Political Science & Politics. 2022.
Do Party Leadership Contests Predict British General Elections? Electoral Studies. 2021.
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). British Journal of Political Science. 2021.
Citizen Forecasting 2020: A State-by-State Experiment (with Michael Lewis-Beck). PS: Political Science & Politics. 2021.
Social Networks and Citizen Election Forecasting: The More Friends the Better (with Debra Leiter, Ericka Rascón & Mary Stegmaier). International Journal of Forecasting. 2018.
The Wisdom of Crowds: What do Do Citizens Forecast for the 2015 British General Election? Electoral Studies. 2016.
The Wisdom of Crowds: Applying Condorcet’s Jury Theorem to Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. International Journal of Forecasting. 2015.
The Party Leadership Model: An Early Forecast of the 2015 British General Election. Research & Politics. 2015.
Modeling Latent Information in Voting Data with Dirichlet Process Priors (with Richard Traunmüller & Jeff Gill). Political Analysis. 2015.
“Wisdom of crowds”? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens’ local expectations. Electoral Studies. 2011.
Book Chapters
Bürger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall with (Arndt Leininger, Lukas Stoetzer & Mark Kayser) in Harald Schoen & Bernhard Weßels (editors): Wahlen und Wähler. 2024.
“Wisdom of Crowds” in Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans & Michael Lewis-Beck (editors): The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour. 2017.