Blog posts

The Party Leadership Model predicts a Labour overall majority. Elections Etc. 2024.

Forecasts suggest Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to win the 2024 Mexican presidential election – though there are mixed signals (with Michael Lewis-Beck). LSE United States Politics and Policy. 2024.

Can Mexicans predict the presidential election in June? (with Michael Lewis-Beck). Oxford University Politics Blog. 2024.

Truss is good news for Labour’s electoral prospects (with Steve Fisher). LSE British Politics and Policy. 2022.

Citizen forecasting suggests Macron will win a comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen (with Yannick Dufresne, Justin Savoie, Bruno Jérôme & Michael Lewis-Beck). LSE European Politics and Policy. 2022.

What do citizens forecast for the 2021 German federal election? Elections Etc. 2021.

Citizens’ Forecast for the 2021 German National Election (with Mark Kayser, Arndt Leininger & Lukas Stötzer). aleininger.eu. 2021.

Crunching decades of leadership election results suggests Labour should pick Keir Starmer (with Steve Fisher). Prospect Magazine. 2020.

The Party Leadership Model predicts a Conservative overall majority (with Steve Fisher). Elections Etc. 2019.

Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). LSE British Politics and Policy Blog. 2019.

Why vote expectations are a better tool for predicting election results than vote intentions (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). LSE British Politics and Policy. 2019.

How did the U.K. election forecasts do? (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). Monkey Cage – The Washington Post. 2017.

New British election forecast: Conservatives gain 31 seats and have 77% chance of controlling a majority (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). Monkey Cage – The Washington Post. 2017.

Using citizen forecasts we predict that with 362 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will be the next president (with Mary Stegmaier & Michael Lewis-Beck). LSE American Politics and Policy. 2016.

The State and Future of Political Methodology (with Steve Fisher & Paul Whiteley). PSA Blog. 2015.

Members of Parliament Accurately Predict Who Becomes Prime Minister. The Plot. 2015.

Citizens Forecast a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the Largest Party. LSE British Politics and Policy. 2015.