Blog posts
2024
The Party Leadership Model predicts a Labour overall majority
Elections Etc, 2024
LSE United States Politics and Policy, 2024
Can Mexicans predict the presidential election in June?
Oxford University Politics Blog, 2024
2022
Truss is good news for Labour's electoral prospects
LSE British Politics and Policy, 2022
Citizen forecasting suggests Macron will win a comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen
LSE European Politics and Policy, 2022
2021
What do citizens forecast for the 2021 German federal election?
Elections Etc, 2021
Citizens' Forecast for the 2021 German National Election
aleininger.eu, 2021
2020
Crunching decades of leadership election results suggests Labour should pick Keir Starmer
Prospect Magazine, 2020
2019
The Party Leadership Model predicts a Conservative overall majority
Elections Etc, 2019
Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives
LSE British Politics and Policy Blog, 2019
Why vote expectations are a better tool for predicting election results than vote intentions
LSE British Politics and Policy, 2019
2017
How did the U.K. election forecasts do?
Monkey Cage – The Washington Post, 2017
Monkey Cage – The Washington Post, 2017
2016
LSE American Politics and Policy, 2016
2015
The State and Future of Political Methodology
PSA Blog, 2015
Citizens Forecast a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the Largest Party
LSE British Politics and Policy, 2015